Thinking in Systems
I am wrapping up Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows, having been inspired recently to study the importance of feedback loops. I find the book fascinating and easily applicable to systems large and small, from the economy to my internal emotional world.
Systems
Systems are made up of stocks, think of it as some resource that can be measured, like water in a bathtub. Stocks are affected by flows, analagous to the pipes that feed water into or out of the tub. The simplest systems have no relation between the stocks and the flows, eg the amount of water in the tub does not affect how fast the tub can drain.
When stocks and flows are interconnected, there is feedback within the system. Think of an interest bearing bank account, where the balance yields interest, which compounds itself: the rate of return, rather than being constant, is a function (typically, a percentage) of the balance. This is a reinforcing feedback loop, which demonstrates exponential growth, ie the stock grows faster and faster over time (in fact, really fast over not so much time!). Balancing feedback loops tend towards some goal, as in the case of a thermostat in a house. When the temperature goes below the threshold, the heating unit kicks in; when the desired temperature is reached, it stops. The stock is kept at the target.
Large and small
The book makes the case that infinite growth cannot be sustained in a finite system. The author is making the argument against infinite economic growth on a planet with finite resources. In the ecological vein, fossil fuels cannot last forever; in simple models, exponential growth in depletion can lead very quickly to resource exhaustion. In my mostly uninformed knowledge, the world has kept up with oil demand through discovering new means of extraction - the USA is the world's largest oil producer thanks to shale extraction. But every finite resource has its limit, which cannot be increased as fast as demand can grow.
In the small scale, I am interested in my emotional wellbeing as a system. Let's say the stock is my stress level. In my view, stress is a reinforcing feedback loop: the more stressed I already am, the more each new stressor is amplified. After meditation I won't be bothered by someone driving erratically, but when my car's AC is broken on a sweltering day and I've already been cut off a dozen times, I am likely to start honking!
In the outflow, I think there's typically a balancing feedback loop towards low stress - unless my goals are miswired due to chronic stress, when my internal systems may naturally guide me towards more stress than I'd like. This is a point towards reflection and awareness: is my resting state anxious or calm? In terms of actually reducing stress, another key lesson is time: stocks and feedback loops tick, they do not interop instantly. In other words, there's no instant meaningful stress reduction. Time takes time, as they say, and when coming down from a high stress level, results may not be immediately apparent. Taking a walk after a brutal day at work won't cut my stress to zero, and if I react to that by beating myself up for failing to eliminate stress, well I am just reinforcing my stress rather than reducing it! A key lesson for me is that stress relief has to be a consistent practice, with results that appear sometimes slower than I'd like.
Catastrophe
In Ubiquity by Mark Buchanan, the author explores catastrophes, and challenges the prevailing wisdom that significant outcomes require significant inputs, ranging from natural disasters like avalanches and forest fires to mass extinction events and economic collapse.
Some systems, such as forests, have naturally occurring balancing feedback loops that keep dry organic material at a low level through recurring small fires. When human intervention disrupts this natural feedback loop, by policy putting out every fire, the amount of dry material builds up over time, tending towards a critical state, one in which any spark can lead to a cataclysmic fire.
Generalizing, I think systems modeling is useful for understanding crisis prone systems. Naturally occurring systems tend towards equilibrium, with internal and external balancing feedback loops. Understanding crisis as a disruption to those feedback loops is helpful to understand how to address the problem: sometimes the feedback loop needs to be restored, sometimes the system needs to be remodeled entirely because the conditions it evolved under have changed.
In the case of evolution, Buchanan describes a simple mathematical model in which evolution can lead to its own critical state, in which a small change to one specie's success can cascade quickly into a mass extinction event - no asteroid necessary! Similarly with capitalism, the boom and bust cycle is not caused by outside intervention but rather the internal dynamics of the system itself, leading to periodic crisis.
For emotional wellbeing, burnout is one potential catastrophe that results from unmanaged and accumulated stress. It may manifest as the result of this or that particular event, but it's likely due to the internal balancing feedback loops not working or not being able to cope with the pattern of incoming stress. To avoid a stress-based critical state, it behooves me to ensure my perception of my stress level is accurate, and my stress flows in and out are in line with my desired stress level.
Conclusions
I could go on and on, I find this subject to be endlessly fascinating and applicable. To keep it short, systems are a useful way to model the world - but remember, they're only models, and therefore inherently limited and flawed. Still, approximations can be used to incredible effect, and a strong application of systems thinking can provide actionable insights into a problem.