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I was reading an article about marine population collapse and in it was mentioned a concept called the "shifting baseline."

Implicit biases

The shifting baseline is a bias whereby what's normal (that is, their baseline) is relative to one's perspective. Okay, sounds obvious enough - normal to me depends on what's normal to me. What's interesting about that?

Consider what happens over time. In the marine population article, it describes how the first generation of marine scientists noticed that populations fell 80% in their lifetimes. Later generations noticed the same rate of collapse within their lifetimes. That is, each generation of scientists were introduced to a different baseline.

So from 80% collapse to 20% remaining. From 20% remaining to 4%. From 4% to 0.8%. When each generation of scientists considers the population levels during their early careers as the baseline, they each notice only a modest relative decline, but over time this amounts to an exponential, catastrophic collapse.

Life

There are quantitative ways to demonstrate this bias in normal life. For example, inflation - ask your parents what they paid for a mortgage or to rent. Even within one's own life, the prices of some goods or services will rise or fall, such that it takes active effort to keep up to date with everyday prices.

One area I have been applying the shifting baseline model to is overload and burn out. I was shocked by a study cited in The Information in which participants elected to continue receiving more information despite it overloading them.

I notice this tendency within myself. Taking on one more obligation, one more responsibility, signing up for one more activity, all seems innocuous - the incremental effort or load is minor. Over time, however, without monitoring my overall commitments, these all add up and threaten to collapse the entire house of cards.

Along these lines, I can also grow accustomed to a certain level of responsibility, shifting my baseline to more and more activities. But I can't keep adding more - I have finite time, energy, availability. Something has to give. The patterns of the past can't keep accumulating.

Look around you

History is the antidote to the bias. Zoom out, try to see the big picture. Confused about current events? Don't understand why the world is the way it is? Don't understand how you got where you are? Look at the past, try to understand it to better understand the present. Don't get caught off guard by a shifting baseline!